Contents
Introduction
In “How Big Things Get Done“, the authors examine why major projects either succeed or fail, focusing on two key factors: psychology and power. They highlight how cognitive biases—such as the planning fallacy and escalation of commitment—along with fat-tailed risks (often referred to as black swans), can derail even the most well-designed plans.
The book emphasizes the importance of robust, iterative planning techniques, such as backcasting and modularity. These methods provide practical strategies for anticipating obstacles and adapting to changes as they arise. By challenging the myth of project uniqueness and advocating for reference class forecasting, authors Flyvbjerg and Gardner offer valuable insights that can help turn ambitious plans into reality, regardless of the complexity of the challenges involved. For better understanding, all these concepts are expanded further in the sections below.
If you’d like to purchase the book on Amazon, please follow the links below:
1) Paperback
2) Hardback
Psychology & Power
At its core, How Big Things Get Done asserts that the success—or failure—of major projects hinges on two fundamental forces: psychology and power.
On the psychology side, human cognition is riddled with biases that skew our judgment and decision-making. For instance, the planning fallacy leads us to underestimate timeframes and costs, while the escalation of commitment makes it hard to abandon failing projects once significant resources have been invested.
Parallel to these cognitive pitfalls, power dynamics play a decisive role in shaping projects from their very inception. Power, in this context, is about who gets to make the decisions and whose vision prevails. The book highlights that many projects are, in a sense, predetermined by the influential individuals and political forces behind them.
Commitment Fallacy
The book also critiques our natural tendency toward the commitment fallacy—where we continue investing in a flawed project due to sunk costs, even when evidence mounts against its success. This cognitive bias, well-documented in psychology, finds echoes in everyday decision-making, from personal investments to corporate strategies. The authors challenge us to recognize when our commitment becomes a liability rather than a virtue, suggesting that stepping back and reassessing is often more beneficial than doubling down on a failing plan.
Fat-tailed Risks
One of the standout concepts is the notion of fat-tailed risks—a statistical reality where extreme events (or “black swans”) are more likely than traditional models suggest. This idea parallels Nassim Taleb’s work in The Black Swan, where he warns that rare, high-impact events are far more common than we assume. In project management, these fat tails manifest as severe cost overruns or delays, which the authors describe using the window of doom analogy: the longer a project remains open, the greater the chance for a catastrophic mishap. This idea invites a broader reflection on risk management, urging leaders in any field to rethink their approach to uncertainty and build resilience into their plans.
Think from Right to Left
In addressing planning pitfalls, the authors advocate for what they call “Think from Right to Left“—a backcasting approach where one starts with a clear vision of the desired outcome and then works backward to determine the necessary steps. This strategy is reminiscent of methods used in design thinking and even in military strategy, where envisioning the endgame helps illuminate the path to success.
Modularity
Another compelling idea is the emphasis on modularity. The book suggests that by breaking a project into smaller, manageable parts—akin to building with Lego blocks—managers can not only accelerate delivery but also reduce the impact of any single failure. This modular approach has clear parallels in software development (e.g., microservices) and even in manufacturing, where modular design allows for rapid prototyping and flexible adjustments.
Uniqueness Bias
Uniqueness bias is the tendency to view a project as one-of-a-kind, leading decision-makers to focus solely on its specific details while overlooking patterns and lessons from similar past projects. This “inside view” can lead to overconfidence, making managers underestimate risks and overrate their ability to control outcomes. In essence, when we believe our project is entirely unique, we often ignore valuable historical data that could offer a more balanced perspective.
To counter this bias, the book advocates for reference class forecasting—an “outside view” approach that compares the current project with a broader class of similar projects. By anchoring forecasts in historical data, decision-makers gain insight into common pitfalls and realistic outcomes, mitigating the risk of overconfidence.
Conclusion
In summary, How Big Things Get Done is not merely a guide for executing projects; it offers a framework for understanding decision-making and managing risk in any ambitious undertaking. By incorporating insights from psychology, statistics, and creative industries, the book encourages us to critically evaluate our planning processes, embrace iterative learning, and develop strategies that are both resilient and innovative.
If you’d like to purchase the book on Amazon, please follow the links below:
1) Paperback
2) Hardback
Related Reviews
- Review of Hidden Potential by Adam Grant
- Review of The Diary of a CEO by Steven Bartlett
- Review of How Big Things Get Done by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner
- Review of The Formula by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
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